Observing the Evolution of Photovoltaics from Global Rankings!

Recently, two photovoltaic lists have sparked heated discussions within the industry. One is the list of the TOP 5 global photovoltaic cell shipments by Infolink in 2022. Besides Tongwei, AXcell, Runyang and Zhongrun Solar Energy (Zhongyu) ranking in the top four, Jietai Technology has replaced Lu 'an and entered the top five globally.

Another list is the Infolink Global TOP 10 Component shipment list. Tongwei's component shipment is tied for ninth place globally with Hanwha QCELL. It is worth mentioning that Tongwei officially entered the component segment in 2022, and its shipment volume ranked among the top ten globally that year, with an astonishing speed.

The two lists reflect the current development status of the photovoltaic industry. Despite intensified competition among leading players, there are still dark horses breaking through. Meanwhile, the tide of integration is fierce, and specialized enterprises are becoming increasingly scarce.

Among them, the rise of the two leading companies, Tongwei and AXcell, is particularly commendable.

In 2013, Tongwei spent a whopping 870 million yuan to acquire Hefei Sunway, restarting Sunway's battery production line and filling the gap in its battery cells. In 2015, Tongwei took the lead in expanding new production capacity in Chengdu and switched its technological route to monocrystalline cells. According to the financial report, Tongwei's photovoltaic cell production capacity was 3.4GW in 2016 and increased to 5.4GW in 2017, topping the list of professional battery enterprises at one stroke.

In November 2018, the 3.2GW solar cell project of Tongwei Shuangliu Phase III adopted the full back Passivation technology (PERC). Together with the 16 cell production lines in the Hefei Phase II factory, Tongwei's PERC cell production capacity reached 5.5GW. According to the financial report, by the end of 2018, Tongwei's solar cell production capacity was 12GW, including 9GW of high-efficiency monocrystalline cells and 3GW of polycrystalline cells. Tongwei once again consolidated its position as a battery giant. By the end of 2019, Tongwei's solar cell production capacity was 20GW, among which 17GW was high-efficiency monocrystalline cells and the shipment of monocrystalline PERC cells exceeded 10GW.

Driven by its dual advantages in production capacity and cost, in 2019, Tongwei Solar Energy once again bet on large-sized products of 182mm and 210mm. On the N-type track, Tongwei was among the first batch of enterprises in the industry to invest in GW-level HJT and TOPCon pilot lines. In 2022, based on the industry's first large-sized PECVD Poly technology production line successfully developed independently, Tongwei launched TNC batteries. In terms of HJT technology, Tongwei has established the industry's first 210 half-chip copper interconnection pilot line.

In just a few years, Tongwei's solar cell business has grown from nothing to become the industry leader. Tongwei, which has "established its territory", has further consolidated its leading position. According to Tongwei's 2022 financial report, its battery production capacity reached 70GW, with the production capacity of 182mm and above sizes accounting for more than 95%, and the battery shipment scale reached 47.98GW. It is expected that by the end of 2023, its battery production capacity will reach 80-100GW and its module production capacity will reach 80GW.

Axcell, also a leading player, began its journey in manufacturing solar cells in 2009 and started mass production of monocrystalline solar cells in 2015. 2017 was a particularly significant year for AXcell Development. It completed the shareholding reform and the official operation of its Yiwu base. In the same year, its tubular PEEC technology achieved mass production. The annual export volume of high-efficiency PERC ranked first in the country that year, and it emerged as a dark horse to enter the TOP 5 list of battery enterprises, ranking fourth.

In 2018, the Aixu Foshan base was transformed into a monocrystalline PERC production line with a capacity of approximately 2GW. Subsequently, AXcell began to build the second phase of its factories in Yiwu and the first phase in Tianjin. By the end of 2018, AXcell's battery production capacity had reached 5.5GW, ranking first in the world in terms of PERC battery shipments and bifacial battery shipments. In the annual TOP 5 battery list, it surpassed Taiwan's United Renewable Energy and Motech, rising to the second place globally. In the following years, AXcell remained firmly in the second place globally and, together with Tongwei, became the two battery giants.

Looking back at AXcell's rise, it lies in its focus on research and development and its accurate grasp of technological transformation points. After fully enjoying the benefits of PERC, Axcell has taken the lead in responding to the iterative transformation of silicon wafers. In July 2019, the first batch of 166mm large-sized batteries of AXcell were officially rolled off the production line at the Tianjin base, making it the world's first professional battery factory to achieve trial production of 166 high-efficiency bifacial PERC batteries. On January 10, 2020, AXcell's Yiwu base globally launched 210mm high-efficiency solar cells, officially aligning with large-sized silicon wafers.

In 2021, Runyang Co., Ltd. signed an investment agreement with the Shizuishan Municipal Government to invest in a 100,000-ton high-purity polysilicon project and a 5GW high-efficiency battery project annually, extending its industrial chain to the silicon material end. In February 2023, the 30,000-ton high-purity polysilicon project of Inner Mongolia Runyang Yueda was officially filed with the local Development and Reform Commission, further expanding Runyang's silicon material portfolio.

In 2022, AXcell closely followed the trend of N-type iteration, and the first phase of the 6.5GW project of the Zhuhai base for the new-generation N-type ABC battery technology was successfully put into operation. According to AXcell's 2022 financial report, it achieved a cumulative battery sales volume of 34.42GW within the year. Since 2010, it has successively formed partnerships with Trina Solar and JinkoSolar to jointly improve the industrial chain of silicon materials, silicon rods and silicon wafers. In 2022, Tongwei officially ventured into the photovoltaic module sector and emerged as a dark horse, successively winning centralized procurement bids for modules from China Resources, Guangdong Electric Power, and others. According to Tongwei's 2022 annual financial report, its module shipment volume reached 7.94GW, successfully ranking among the top ten global module shipments.

Since 2022, we have also been increasing our module production capacity, including the 30GW new high-efficiency photovoltaic module project in Yiwu, the 15GW high-efficiency module project in Jinan, and the 10GW new-generation high-efficiency crystalline silicon solar module project of Zhuhai AXcell, etc. In its 2022 annual report, Aixu Co., Ltd. mentioned that to promote the high-quality development of the enterprise in the coming years, the company plans to add 2-3 domestic production bases in 2023, with each base planned to have an integrated production capacity of no less than 30GW of batteries and modules. The relevant preparatory work is currently underway.

Overall, at present, only Jietai Technology is a pure battery enterprise. According to the 2022 financial report, Jietai Technology has three production bases that have been built or are in the planning stage up to now, with a planned annual production capacity of 53.5GW.

From the perspective of the development history of the photovoltaic cell industry, the two models of specialization and integration have long existed. Compared with enterprises with a single link, those with an integrated layout can reduce the cost of the entire industrial chain and maintain a strong competitive edge. Since 2021, with the continuous prominent contradiction between supply and demand in the industrial chain and under the general trend, integration has become the choice of many enterprises. Some enterprises have even extended their manufacturing links to the upstream polysilicon and industrial silicon. On the other hand, an integrated layout comes with relatively large sunk costs. Once new technologies emerge, existing technologies will become sunk costs, which is also something that photovoltaic enterprises should be vigilant about.