Industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly, and the trading center of gravity kept shifting downward

The spot quotations for industrial silicon wafers remain stable. In the Zhejiang market, the price of oxygen 553# is between 16,200 and 16,400 yuan per ton, with a median price of 16,300 yuan per ton. The price of Tongoxygen421 # is between 17,500 and 17,700 yuan per ton, with a median price of 17,600 yuan per ton.

On the demand side, in terms of organosilicon wafers, the price of organosilicon DMC in East China remains low today, with the mainstream market transactions concentrated at 15,600-16,500 yuan per ton (including tax for purified water). The cost side has slightly declined, and the profit inversion of individual factories has somewhat eased. Coupled with the reduction of inventory pressure, the mindset remains firm. The downstream market remains lackluster and is expected to show a downward trend in the long term. This week (20230324-0330), the average operating rate of 13 domestic silicone DMC sample enterprises was 68.46%, a decrease of 9.65% compared with last week. The weekly output was 37,900 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons compared with last week.

In terms of polysilicon, the price of polysilicon remains stable. This week will enter the signing period at the end of the month. The overall long-term contract negotiation and signing work for silicon materials is expected to be launched successively in the near future. The overall price of silicon materials will continue to show a weakening trend with the release of new silicon material production capacity. However, with the tight supply in the downstream silicon wafer sector and the support of a certain rigid demand for silicon materials, it is expected that the price of silicon materials will remain stable or may decline significantly.

In terms of aluminum alloys, domestic aluminum alloy ingots have remained stable. Downstream demand is acceptable, but the purchasing enthusiasm is average. The overall transaction performance is mediocre, and the momentum for continuous price hikes is slightly insufficient.

Regarding the future market, Guotai Junan Futures believes that the current situation is still in the overall downward cycle of the first half of the year, and the pressure of high inventory has not been effectively alleviated. In the short term, there may be some support for prices due to the reduction in production by silicon factories in the southwest region, but the overall downward logic remains unchanged. The bottom of prices will only appear after significant changes occur on both the supply and demand sides.